Global oil inventories are expected to fall by 200,000 bpd in the second half of 2023 due to voluntary output cuts from Saudi Arabia and reduced production among OPEC+ countries, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.
The lower inventories, which are forecast to keep global oil supply below consumption, are likely to boost oil prices, the EIA said in a monthly report. It now sees spot Brent crude at $94.91 a barrel in 2024, up from a previous forecast of $88.22.
Oil prices have been volatile in recent months, with voluntary outputs cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia lending support while macroeconomic concerns have thrown into question demand expectations and put a lid on futures.
Brent crude futures are currently just above $86 per barrel.
Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, are expected to cut their crude production by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 compared with this year, the EIA said.
Crude output in the U.S. is set to rise by 1.01 million bpd to 12.92 million bpd in 2023, and by 200,000 bpd to 13.12 million bpd in 2024, the EIA said.
Total U.S. petroleum consumption is expected to increase by 100,000 bpd to 20.1 million bpd in 2023, and by 100,000 bpd to 20.2 million bpd in 2024.
U.S. jet fuel consumption is forecast to climb 6% in 2024 from this year on strong consumer demand for air travel, which has returned to pre-pandemic levels, the EIA said.
(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly; Editing by Jan Harvey)