It’s 13-F season, which means the world gets to find out most of what the world’s top fund managers have been up, on a tape-delay basis. The likes of Warren Buffett and Carl Icahn it is fair to say are not day traders but like to stick around in a stock for a long time.
The opposite of long-term investing is speculation, and it’s worthwhile knowing what those stocks are, too. That’s all the more so this year, when investors have been encouraged to take more speculative activity in light of the view, real or imagined, that the Federal Reserve will pause, and possibly reverse, interest-rate hikes.
There’s a simple way to identify so-called lottery stocks. A research paper from authors including Alok Kumar of the University of Miami notes that, if all market participants were passive investors, the ratio of dollar volume to market cap would be equal for all stocks. So, look for the stocks with the highest turnover ratios to find the most speculative stocks.
MarketWatch did just that, screening New York Stock Exchange- and Nasdaq-listed stocks, with market caps of at least $500 million.
The winner, so to speak, by some distance was Mullen Automotive, the California electric-vehicle maker. Others include ContextLogic, the e-commerce company that this week was backed by Citron Research; Marathon Digital, a bitcoin miner; two AI plays, SoundHound AI and BigBear.ai; Carvana, the struggling used-car retailer; and Silvergate Capital, which has aggressively lent to crypto clients.
|Company||Ticker||Avg volume-to-market cap|
|Mullen Automotive|| MULN,
|Marathon Digital|| MARA,
|SoundHound AI|| SOUN,
|Silvergate Capital|| SI,
|Opendoor Technologies|| OPEN,
|Riot Platforms|| RIOT,
|AMC Entertainment|| AMC,
That methodology, applied in reverse, also reveals some of the least speculative names. They include Coca-Cola KO,
U.S. stock futures ES00,
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The 13-F from Berkshire Hathaway revealed Warren Buffett didn’t do much at all in the fourth quarter. His Apple AAPL,
There’s another big economic indicator due for release on Wednesday, with retail sales the highlight, but also the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production, a home-builder survey and business inventories on the docket. U.K. inflation fell for the third straight month, but was still in double digits at 10.1%.
Elon Musk disclosed he donated about $2 billion of Tesla TSLA,
Musk separately told the World Government Summit that he wanted to find a chief executive for Twitter by the end of the year. Twitter engineers reportedly changed settings after a Musk tweet saying he was supporting the Eagles in the Super Bowl got less engagement than a similar missive from President Joe Biden.
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