The Bitcoin price continues to be strongly influenced by macroeconomic conditions in the US. After BTC reached a new 5-month high of $24,241 last Wednesday, the price is on the decline again. Over the weekend, Bitcoin lost another 3% and was at $22,810 as of press time.
Initially, the price was propelled higher last week by the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and dovish comments from Jerome Powell, before a major damper came on Friday.
According to the latest figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy saw a sensational 517,000 new job growth last month – a sign that the Fed is likely to keep interest rates high for longer. The dollar index (DXY) subsequently saw a strong bounce from below 101 to the current 103, dragging down BTC.
The Upcoming Week For Bitcoin And Crypto
After many important economic figures last week, crypto investors can expect a rather uneventful trading week. The most important event could come up as early as tomorrow, Tuesday, when Fed Chairman Powell steps in front of the cameras once again.
Investors will listen to whether Powell will back up the Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy with new statements after the strong US labor market data or repeat his dovish statements from the FOMC press conference.
However, the latter seems rather unlikely, as the persistently resilient job market will undoubtedly expand the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy leeway.
Presumably, the all-decisive factor will once again be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, which will be published on February 14. Whether Powell will be tempted to make new comments as early as tomorrow remains to be seen.
In the second half of the week, the focus is on Thursday and the announcement of the latest figures on initial jobless claims in the U.S.. The publication will take place at 8:30 EST.
In addition to the labor market report released on Friday, initial jobless claims is considered the second most relevant measure for assessing the U.S. job market.
In January, the number of new claims reported had been consistently lower than expected, which is consistent with the labor market data presented last Friday. If this trend continues, the Fed may have one more argument for “higher and longer,” which would be bearish for Bitcoin.
If the estimate is exceeded, and more citizens in the U.S. apply for unemployment claims, Friday’s report could be put into perspective and crypto market sentiment could swing back to bullish thanks to a further falling DXY.
Finally, Friday (at 10am EST) will see the release of Consumer Expectations and US Consumer Confidence by the University of Michigan. At the pre-release on January 13, U.S. household consumer confidence continued to rise, contrary to experts’ expectations, and came in at 62.0, well above the forecast of 59.5.
If this is confirmed and the final figures on consumer expectations are likewise positive, this would presumably also be positive for crypto and Bitcoin.
At press time, BTC was able to bounce off the support at $22,650. This level will be extremely crucial this week.
Featured image from Kanchanara / Unsplash, Chart from TradingView.com