Today is Groundhog Day in the United States — a day when locals gather around “Punxsutawney Phil” to watch if he sees his shadow, which is a superstitious sign that there is six more weeks of winter ahead.
Bitcoin and altcoins are suddenly soaring since the start of the year, after what has been one of the longest crypto winters on record. But could Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction today also mean another six months of crypto winter?
The Strange Story Of Groundhog Day
The origins of Groundhog Day date back thousands of years. In early Celtic calendars, rather than seasons and solstices there were so-called “turning points.”
May 1, for example, became May Day. While November 1 became All Saints’ Day and February 1 eventually became Groundhog Day.
Before it took the form of Groundhog Day, it was called “Candlemas Day.”
“If Candlemas day be fair and bright
Winter will have another flight
If on Candlemas day it be showre and rain
Winter is gone and will not come again,” an old poem read.
Although it’s not understood why, the Germans brought badgers into the tradition to help predict the weather related outcome. When the holiday came to America via the Dutch settlers of Pennsylvania, the groundhog took place of the badger.
What Six More Weeks Of Crypto Winter Would Look Like
Today, Punxsutawney Phil, the iconic groundhog representing the holiday, took the position that “six more weeks of winter” is coming. With Bitcoin and altcoins soaring, should the market also fear another six more weeks of crypto winter?
Interestingly, the folklore points to a “turning point” beginning on February 1. While the market might have already flipped bullish, today could be a more official turning point.
Will the same situation repeat again and again? | BTCUSD on TradingView.com
A film was made named after the holiday where lead actor Bill Murray relived the same day again and again. When taking a zoomed out view of the crypto market via BTCUSD charts, bottoming here would be a Groundhog Day like scenario where cryptocurrency bull runs repeat with a cyclical rhythm.
If the cryptocurrency market were to experience another six months of crypto winter, it might not mean new lows. In 2015, Bitcoin attempted to breakout form its bear market bottom, only to be rejected down for precisely six more weeks of crypto winter.
What six more week's of crypto winter would look like | BTCUSD on TradingView.com
If BTCUSD and altcoins are once again rejected here, perhaps Punxsutawney Phil and Groundhog Day are worth adding to the list other seasonal financial market phenomenon like the “January effect” or “sell in May and go away.”
Follow @TonyTheBullBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
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Tony Spilotro
I’m Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I’m a digital media executive and global remote work leader with a decade of content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views. I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck – literally – to future generations. My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution. While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn’t yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can’t yet dig out of. My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me. Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say. Please follow me on Twitter and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.
