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marketwatch-premium:-everyone-thinks-inflation-will-stick-around.-these-three-accurate-models-say-otherwise
marketwatch-premium:-everyone-thinks-inflation-will-stick-around.-these-three-accurate-models-say-otherwise

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MarketWatch Premium: Everyone thinks inflation will stick around. These three accurate models say otherwise

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Most inflation forecasters do little more than extrapolate the recent past into the future

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(Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)

Gutsy contrarians are betting that inflation will be a lot lower in one year’s time, and lower still in two years.

Their outlook is at odds to Wall Street’s consensus, but that is the point. As Humphrey Neill, the father of contrarian analysis, reminded his clients: “When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong.”

The Wall Street…

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